Abstract:
With COP29 around the corner, the UAE is doubling down on its climate commitments, pledging to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 47% from 2019 levels by 2035—a marked increase from its prior 40% goal for 2030. The updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) come amid scrutiny over the country’s continued investments in fossil fuels, raising questions about the feasibility of its ambitious climate targets.
Key Highlights:
- Raising the bar: The UAE’s new target aims to slash emissions from 196.3 MtCO2eq in 2019 to 103.5 MtCO2eq by 2035.
- Sector-specific goals: Buildings lead with a 79% reduction target, followed by waste (-37%), agriculture (-39%), industry (-27%), and transport (-20%).
- Pivot to stricter benchmarks: Shifting from business-as-usual metrics, the UAE now uses a base-year scenario for clearer comparisons.
- Balancing Priorities: While committed to climate pledges, the UAE is investing $17 billion in offshore gas to boost fossil fuel production by 2030, highlighting the complex energy transition challenge.
- Renewables on the rise: Investments in solar, waste-to-energy, and nuclear power signal progress toward cleaner energy.
- Global implications: As a major oil producer, the UAE’s plan is a critical test of COP28’s commitment to phasing out fossil fuels globally.
With its climate ambitions and economic realities at odds, the UAE’s progress—or lack of— at COP29.